Week 10 in Division I-AA
11/3/2004 12:00:00 AM | Football
You could excuse I-AA players and coaches from five teams if they felt like throwing some eggs and smashing some pumpkins on Halloween Eve.
There had to be some pent-up aggression for five teams in the 13-19 range of last week’s top 25. Stephen F. Austin, Northwestern State, Appalachian State, Colgate and Maine all suffered losses that either finished off their playoff chances or put their season in serious jeopardy. The "teens" went just 1-5 last week, and now have daunting tasks to make the playoff field.
Stephen F. Austin lost to Sam Houston State in a close game and has to win the remaining games to have a chance. Northwestern State fell on the road for the second straight week, and now has to win out to have a chance at a playoff berth. Maine lost in a mild upset at Massachusetts and is probably out of playoff contention, and Appalachian State saw its chances go away with a shocking loss at Chattanooga.
Colgate had the best effort of the group of fallen teens in a loss at Lehigh’s Goodman Stadium. About Goodman Stadium, I must say the atmosphere was absolutely enjoyable. With carnival-like concessions and a hill behind the goalpost for extra seating, the stadium had the feel of a minor-league baseball park. Lehigh’s strong alumni attendance at the game and general party pre-game atmosphere in the parking lot added to the great experience.
Moving on to the game itself, the teams played very evenly in two very different halves. In the first half, both offenses moved up and down the field on a long, methodical drives. Each team scored two touchdowns, and each missed mid-range field goals. The Raiders and the Mountain Hawks went to the half tied, 14-14.
The second half was dominated by the defenses. Lehigh intercepted Chris Brown three times, and cashed in on one of the picks for the only score of the half. Lehigh’s Julian Austin picked off Brown in the endzone to end Colgate’s final threat, and put at least a severe damper on the Raiders chances going forward.
"We’ll have to see what happens (with the playoffs)," said Colgate head coach Dick Biddle. "We just need to get a win, we’re not worried about the playoffs."
Colgate at least has hope. So does Stephen F. Austin and Northwestern State. But if these teams don’t turn it around very quickly, it will be tricks instead of treats again on the third weekend in November.
WEEK NINE NOTEBOOK
Team of the Week: Montana State
Talk about seizing on an opportunity. The Bobcats moved into prime playoff position by beating Northern Arizona and moving seven spots in the polls through losses of five teams ahead of them in the rankings. The "Cardiac" Cats had to go down to the wire for their last four victories, but could have skipped the final 50 minutes in a thorough 60-14 thrashing of Northern Arizona. Montana State jumped out to a 22-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, which ballooned to a remarkable 53-0 by halftime. Coming into the game, the Bobcats were just one game up on Northern Arizona in the standings. With just two losses and three games remaining, the Bobcats are in the enviable position of still being able to afford another loss and still make the postseason. Montana State had to hold on and survive for a month, but plenty of teams in I-AA would love to switch positions with the Bobcats now.
Mid-Major Team of the Week: Drake
Dayton looked nearly invincible against Mid-Major competition, but the Bulldogs posted a tremendous defensive effort to beat the Flyers on the road. Drake won the North Division of the Pioneer League outright by making a goal line stand on the game’s final play and winning, 13-6. Drake is on a six-game winning streak for the first time since 1998, and moved its record to 7-2. A loss to Wisconsin-Platteville in September could ultimately doom the Bulldogs in the quest for the Sports Network Cup, but Drake is right on the cusp of the No. 1 spot if Monmouth falters.
Best Top 25 Win: No. 8 Sam Houston State 31, No. 13 Stephen F. Austin 28
In a heated rivalry, the Bearkats walked away with a huge road victory to solidify their chances at a top four seed in the playoffs. Sam Houston State got the Lumberjacks best effort, but kept responding by making plays and holding on. Stephen F. Austin took the lead twice in the second half, but each time the Bearkats answered within three minutes with a Dustin Long touchdown pass to reclaim the advantage. The Lumberjacks moved down the field with a chance to tie or take the lead in the final minutes before the Bearkats defense held and defensive lineman Steven Hagler blocked a field goal attempt to preserve the victory. Stephen F. Austin now has to win out to have a shot at the postseason, while Sam Houston State is only a win or two away from punching its ticket.
Worst Top 25 Loss: Chattanooga 59, No. 17 Appalachian State 56
Appalachian State got through the meat of its schedule and only had to win three games against the bottom of the Southern Conference to basically assure a playoff berth. It only took one game to effectively eliminate the Mountaineers from any talk of the postseason. Like expected, Appalachian State scored at will against one of the worst defenses in the country. But the Mountaineer defense made Chattanooga look like the 1980’s 49ers and Cedric Stevens played the role of Joe Montana. Stevens passed at will and the Mocs rallied from 28-7 down to defeat the Mountaineers. Appalachian’s road woes and defense are ultimately its undoing this year. The Mountaineers surrender 36 points per game and have yet to win even one game away from home, a place they’ll now be staying at on Thanksgiving weekend.
Best Game: UC Davis 36, No. 5 Cal Poly 33
Cal Poly finally losing was not a shock, but the way the Mustangs fell to UC Davis was a surprise. Plagued by offensive woes all season, Cal Poly played one of its best games on offense but for once the defense faltered in what became a second half shootout. After falling behind, 21-7, at halftime, the Mustangs stormed back and took a 24-21 lead early in the fourth quarter. UC Davis regained the lead at 28-24 with 10 minutes left, but Cal Poly came back again with a touchdown and a field goal to take a 33-28 lead. The Mustangs defense had faced the situation of stopping an offense late in the game before, but was not up to the task this time around. Davis gained possession on its own 47-yard line with just 40 seconds left and no timeouts, and then moved to the Cal Poly 14 after a pass interference call and a 24-yard completion. Jon Grant, who threw for 393 yards, hit Tony Kays with a 14-yard strike with 13 seconds left to provide the winning margin.
Play of the Week: On a day of upsets, New Hampshire’s Corey Graham made sure that his team would not fall victim. Graham led the Wildcats with 13 tackles, but it was his interception with 5:24 left in the game that decided the outcome at Northeastern. Graham picked off Northeastern quarterback Shawn Brady and raced 25 yards for the gamewinning score in a 27-23 UNH win. With just two losses and three quality wins, New Hampshire remains in good shape to earn a playoff bid.
Stat of the Week: 1337
Combined yards in Chattanooga’s 59-56 win against Appalachian State. The Mocs gained 695 yards, while the Moutaineers garnered 642.
Now, let’s take a look at the week that was, and the week that will be, in I-AA football:
MID-MAJOR SHAKEUP
With losses by the top two teams in The Sports Network Mid-Major top 10, the race for The Sports Network Cup changed greatly Saturday. No. 4 Drake went into Dayton and defeated the top-ranked Flyers, 13-6. No. 3 Monmouth held off No. 2 Central Connecticut State, 9-6. With the wins, Monmouth moved up to No. 1 in the country and Drake now holds the No. 2 position. If Monmouth wins out, the Hawks figure to hang on and win The Sports Network Cup. Monmouth would be a very worthy champion with a 10-1 record and a win against Georgetown, but it’s a shame that Monmouth and Drake (if they win out) can’t play it out on the field like the rest of I-AA does. If the Mid-Majors accept the fact that they are not going to be considered for the I-AA playoff field, a title game after the final week of the season would be an excellent way to decide a champion. Politics and money will probably get in the way of this becoming a reality, but it would be nice to play it out on the field instead of going to a I-A style poll.
GREAT GAME, UGLY ENDING
Sam Houston State defeated Stephen F. Austin in a classic meeting against rivals, but unfortunately the game turned sour after the final seconds ticked away. The teams got into an ugly brawl at midfield following Sam Houston State’s win, and though who and how started the fight is up for debate the ramifications are serious for both teams. The Southland Conference suspended 16 players following the contest, league commissioner Tom Burnett announced on Tuesday. Stephen F. Austin’s Brandon Garrett, Robert Castillo, Rodney Fuller, Erik Wilson, Ryan Smith, Jeremy Davis, Miguel Toulon and Cedric Reescano shall serve a one-game suspension during SFA’s Nov. 6 game at Nicholls State. Sam Houston’s Bernard Campbell, Scorpio Babers, Elijah Simon, Steve Pickering, Ryan Dretke, Adam Karas, John Griffin and Brad Baca shall serve the same suspension during Sam Houston’s home game Nov. 6 versus McNeese State."Per the bylaws of the Southland Conference, the league cannot and will not tolerate such unsportsmanlike acts, no matter the degree of rivalry between institutions," Burnett said following a review of the incident. "This conference has devoted a great deal of time to improving sportsmanship, and has developed thorough guidelines to address such poor behavior."
JUST FOR FUN
Sometimes the best part of following sports is just to make guesses and speculation for fun. I know, I’m kind of a dork with these things, but I think I’ve done a mock field of 64 before the college basketball field is announced every year since I was about 13. When life moved on to college, the joy of mock brackets even moved on to who might get married first (Nick, you got it buddy). Now on the I-AA scene, I have a new group of brackets to try to project before they are released. Complicating matters is questions over who will get the first round home games, but with the regional setting I should be able to come up with a decent guess for what the committee would come up with on Nov. 21. The following is my current projections for the bracket, using the field of 16 projected earlier in the week:
Region I; New Hampshire at Lehigh; Hampton at No. 4 Delaware.
Region II; Wofford at James Madison; William & Mary at No. 1 Georgia Southern.
Region III; Montana State at No. 2 Southern Illinois; Cal Poly at Montana.
Region IV Jacksonville State at No. 3 Sam Houston State; Furman at Western Kentucky.
THE GAMES
I braved the storm of top 25 upsets and came out in decent shape with a 70 percent rate of winners. I almost left Lehigh’s Goodman Stadium with an exactly right prediction, but a missed field goal by both teams meant my 24-17 call was off by three points each way. I have hit all the marquee matchups in the past two weeks, though that could be a challenge this week with four games pitting ranked opponents on the schedule.
Last Week’s Record: 22-9 (.710) Season Record: 213-80 (.727)
QUICK HITS
Massachusetts (4-5) at Northeastern (3-5), 12:00
The meeting in suburban Boston still has plenty of sizzle, but the meat of the matchup is not as strong with both teams eliminated from playoff contention. Massachusetts head coach Don Brown left Northeastern to coach the Minutemen in the offseason, and his exit was not graceful to say the least. Northeastern was upset about the way Brown left, and eventually the schools compromised and Brown was suspended for the first three games of the season. The Huskies figure to be fired up to beat their ex-coach, but both teams could use some wins to salvage what’s left of what was once a promising season. Both teams were ranked for most of the season but have been casualties of the brutal Atlantic 10 schedule. UMass hasn’t stopped the run all season and the offense has been spotty, while Northeastern has scored but hasn’t stopped opponents in the past couple games. A player to watch in this game is Northeastern running back James West, who earned the Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Week honor with a strong performance against New Hampshire. If West can have success running, the Huskies should win. Neither team has much left to play for, and that situation usually tilts in the advantage of the team playing in front of its home crowd. Throw in the extra motivation of facing their ex-coach and the Huskies should come away with the victory. Prediction: Northeastern 31, Massachusetts 24
Fordham (5-3) at Bucknell (4-4), 1:00
Fordham is hanging around in the playoff picture with just one loss in Patriot League play. Part of the reason for their position is games with Lehigh and Colgate still await, but the Rams have a chance nonetheless. Fordham could still be technically alive with a loss to Bucknell, but dropping the contest to the Bison will probably put the Rams away. Fordham has had its problems stopping the run, and that could be a huge task against the Bison. Bucknell quarterback Daris Wilson rushed for 252 yards and five touchdowns in last week’s win at Holy Cross. Fordham needs to put up points with Derrick Daniels to keep up, but the Rams might not see the ball enough with Bucknell controlling play on the ground. The Bison will get a home win and cripple the Rams playoff hopes. Prediction: Bucknell 27, Fordham 20
Eastern Kentucky (3-5) at Tennessee-Martin (2-7), 1:00
With last week’s overtime loss to Murray State, the Colonels are on the verge of playoff elimination. Even with a win, Eastern Kentucky could end the week barely hanging on to its Ohio Valley title hopes. It might have been a different story if quarterback Matt Guice was healthy all year, because Eastern Kentucky has moved the ball and put up points at a much better rate when he’s at the helm. Wide receiver Andre Ralston was also out in the loss to Murray State, and if either is out against UT-Martin the offense could struggle to produce. It won’t matter much here, as Eastern Kentucky is a much better team. Prediction: Eastern Kentucky 27, Tennessee-Martin 16
Howard (5-3) at South Carolina State (6-2), 1:30
By the end of the day, the MEAC race could be wide open or and open and shut case. If Howard can knock off the Bulldogs, both teams will have two losses. The Bethune-Cookman/Hampton loser will also have two losses, and if the Wildcats defeat the Pirates, Howard would still have a shot. That’s a lot to ask for the Bison, but at least they still have a shot. Howard has played some pretty good football since an 0-2 start, and has a chance to come in and knock off the Bulldogs. The formula for South Carolina State is even simpler. The Bulldogs just need to win out and have Hampton lose once to win the MEAC automatic bid, and would even have a shot as an at-large entrant with a 9-2 record. South Carolina State has played well in every game except one, and can run and stop the run. That Bulldogs keep their MEAC and at-large postseason hopes going with a win. Prediction: South Carolina State 30, Howard 20
Northern Iowa (4-4) at Indiana State (4-5), 1:30
Northern Iowa is peaking. The Panthers are looking like the juggernaut they were expected to be when the season started with a healthy Terrance Freeney and a strong defense leading to double-digit victories. In the end, UNI will probably just end up as the most talented team not to make the playoffs with four close losses to very good teams. Indiana State is going in the other direction. The Sycamores had a great run in non-conference play and won their first Gateway game of the season, but have not played well at all since. The trends will continue, and UNI will win by a big margin again. Prediction: UNI 38, Indiana State 17
Elon (2-6) at Appalachian State (5-4), 2:00
The Mountaineers are one of the most unpredictable teams in I-AA football. Appalachian State is great at home and terrible on the road. They look like a top 10 team one week then play like a mediocre team the next. The defense played well against Furman and Wofford, but came one point away from giving up 60 to Chattanooga. The biggest reason to keep following the Mountaineers is Richie Williams and Davon Fowlkes. The duo puts on a show every week and deserve a better fate than a season without the playoffs. While Appalachian State has been inconsistent, Elon has just been consistently bad. The Mountaineers finish 6-0 on their home turf with an easy win. Prediction: Appalachian State 42, Elon 14
Hofstra (4-4) at Maine (4-4), 2:00
Another of the disappointing four-loss teams, Maine’s fall from the playoff picture was not altogether shocking because of the Black Bears very difficult schedule. But looking back on the season and the losses, Maine should not be on the outside looking in at the playoffs right now. Maine surrendered two leads in the final minutes and lost on a blocked extra point at Massachusetts. The loss to the Minutemen was particularly disheartening because Maine was through the tough part of the schedule and still only had three losses. The Black Bears have the talent of a top 15 team, and should at least close out the season strong. Hofstra has played everybody tough so don’t expect a blowout, but the Black Bears should at least do enough to hold on to the win. Prediction: Maine 28, Hofstra 21
Eastern Illinois (4-4) at Tennessee Tech (5-3), 3:00
For a team with a 4-4 record and two conference losses, Eastern Illinois has a good amount of control over its playoff chances. The Panthers can drop a third conference loss on Tennessee Tech, and have an opportunity to deal Jacksonville State a second conference defeat next week. They already beat two-loss Murray State, so winning out would leave Eastern Illinois with a very good shot to earn the OVC’s automatic bid. The Panthers are one of the more unpredictable teams in the conference so far. They had great efforts against Murray State and Tennessee State, but lost bad to Eastern Kentucky and fell by 18 to lowly Tennessee-Martin. Tennessee Tech moved into contention with a win against Jacksonville State two weeks ago, but saw its opportunity to win out and make the playoffs go away with last week’s loss at Samford. The Golden Eagles have played great defense, and the offense has been there most of the way. Eastern Illinois has been too inconsistent to expect a four-game win streak to close the season, but the young roster is getting better and will get the job done on the road. Prediction: Eastern Illinois 24, Tennessee Tech 17
No. 17 Montana State (6-2) at Sacramento State (2-6), 7:05
The Bobcats are peaking at the right time. In the first three games, the offense stumbled and Montana State was off to just a 1-2 start. The offense didn’t exactly look great against Idaho State and Weber State, but the Bobcats found a way to gut out victories. In the last three contests, Travis Lulay and the Montana State offense has gotten hot to complement a solid defense. It all came together with Saturday’s 60-14 whipping of Northern Arizona, and Montana State needs two more strong efforts in the last three games to earn a playoff berth. The last two games are against Eastern Washington and Montana, so the ‘Cats could really use a win at Sacramento State. The Hornets haven’t shown too much in the Big Sky, and don’t figure to prove too much of a problem for Montana State. Prediction: Montana State 31, Sacramento State 14
Columbia (1-6) at No. 16 Harvard (7-0), 12:00
And then there was one. The Crimson are the only undefeated team left in I-AA, though they just survived in a 13-12 win at rival Dartmouth. The Big Green defense did a good job of bottling up Payton candidate Clifton Dawson and held the star running back without a touchdown for the first time this season. Harvard needs to get the offense going again with a big Ivy matchup with perennial conference power Penn coming next week. Columbia’s 83rd ranked defense is a good unit to get going against, and the Crimson will play well on both sides of the ball to go into the Penn showdown with an 8-0 record. Prediction: Harvard 27, Columbia 10
Gardner-Webb (3-5) at No. 12 Wofford (6-2), 1:30
The Terriers could pose one of the most challenging dilemmas for the committee on selection day. If Wofford beats Gardner-Webb and VMI yet loses to Furman, the Terriers would finish 8-3 with losses to three ranked opponents but no wins over top 25 teams. Take last year’s playoff success into account, and the Terriers fate in that situation would be tough to determine. The Terriers can put any doubt to rest by defeating Furman next week, and Gardner-Webb should serve as little more than a tune-up for that game. The Bulldogs haven’t stopped any of their better opponents this year, and Wofford will have a chance to fine-tune its ground game before next week. Prediction: Wofford 35, Gardner- Webb 13
No. 9 Lehigh (7-1) at Georgetown (2-6), 12:30
The Mountain Hawks are shooting for win No. 600 in the program’s history, and should have no problem reaching that mark against pitiful Georgetown. The Georgetown game comes at a good time for Brown and White, who played rival Colgate last week and still have Fordham and rival Lafayette left on the schedule. Georgetown’s offense has scored single-digit points five times and has not scored more than 21 points in any game since the season opener. Lehigh’s Mark Borda is peaking at quarterback, and the Mountain Hawks have had no trouble disposing of some of their weaker competition easily. That trend should ring true again in an easy Lehigh victory. Prediction: Lehigh 38, Georgetown 10
GOOD GAMES
No. 25 Alabama State (6-1) at Grambling State (4-4), 2:30
After winning the SWAC East division in his first season, Alabama State head coach Charlie Coe could be on his way to another title. The Hornets came from 11 points down to defeat Alabama A & M, 24-20, last week and have a one-game lead in the East division. With the win and a 6-1 record, the Hornets became the first SWAC team to crack the Sports Network top 25 since Grambling State fell out after the first week of the season. The Tigers struggled a bit after Bruce Eugene went down for the season with an injury, but they’ve rebounded to win four of the last six and two straight. The Tigers have the advantage of playing in front of the Homecoming crowd, and the offense has played well in the latter half of the season. But Alabama State may be the most balanced and most talented team in the conference, leading the league in total offense and placing second in total defense. SWAC rushing leader Keldrick Williams will have a good effort against the Tigers defense, and the slight edge on both sides of the ball will be enough for Alabama State to overcome GSU’s homefield advantage. Prediction: Alabama State 31, Grambling State 27
Lafayette (6-2) at No. 24 Colgate (5-3), 12:30
The Leopards success in the Patriot League is really pretty remarkable. Lafayette had the deck stacked against it with four conference road games and only two at home, but the Leopards have already posted wins at Georgetown, Bucknell and Fordham and can sweep the road part of the Patriot League schedule with a victory at Colgate. If they do, Lafayette can win out at home and win the Patriot League outright. Even with a loss, the Leopards will likely still have a chance to force a three-way tie by defeating Lehigh in the season finale. The Raiders are in a much more dire situation. With a loss, Colgate will be done in the Patriot League and will see its playoff hopes dashed a year after making the national title game. The Raiders last three games are all tough, but if they win out Colgate might have an argument for an at-large at 8-3 considering last season’s success. With that in mind, Colgate should have an inspired effort to stop the potent Lafayette ground game. The Raiders have talented skill players on offense too, and aren’t going to see their playoff hopes go away by losing on their home turf. Prediction: Colgate 28, Lafayette 17
Texas State (4-4) at No. 22 Northwestern State (5-3), 5:00
What a difference two weeks makes in the college football season. Two weeks ago, Northwestern State was sitting at 5-1 and No. 9 in the country, and a 3-2 record the rest of the way would probably be enough to make the playoffs. The Demons then proceeded to lose at Nicholls State and North Dakota State the last two weeks, and now have to sweep the remaining three games against the best teams in the Southland. Texas State has gone the other way in the past two games. The Bobcats were close in their losses earlier in the season, but at 2-4 couldn’t be considered a serious contender for the Southland championship. Texas State then upset Stephen F. Austin, and last week ended a 17-game road- losing streak by trouncing McNeese State. Northwestern State appears to have the better roster and should win the game, but the Demons have given away games with penalties and have not played well in the second half the past two weeks. If Northwestern State can cut down on its near 100 yards per game average in penalties, it would have a shot to win out the rest of the way. The Demons are much better at home than on the road, and they’ll stay in the race with a win against Texas State. Prediction: Northwestern State 30, Texas State 17
No. 20 Penn (6-1) at Princeton (4-3), 1:00
Penn’s defense led the way again as the Quakers extended their Ivy League winning streak to 19 games. Sam Mathews ran for a score early in the fourth quarter, and the defense held off Brown the rest of the way. Penn’s offense isn’t always dynamic, but Mathews has produced at running back, Dan Castles has made big plays at wide receiver, and Pat McDermott has made very few mistakes at the quarterback position. The ball-control offense serves as a great compliment to the stout defense, and the Quakers have shown week after week they have a penchant for winning games down the stretch. Princeton struggled in the close games department last year, but has turned it around this year until last week’s 21-20 loss at Cornell. Princeton still has hopes for an Ivy League title, but the Tigers are a little behind Penn on both sides of the ball and the Quakers always seem to find a way to get the job done. Penn will find a way again. Prediction: Penn 20, Princeton 17
No. 18 Stephen F. Austin (5-3) at Nicholls State (4-3), 7:30
Hopes were high a few weeks ago, but the Lumberjacks are on a downward spiral after two losses and a ugly postgame altercation following the loss to Sam Houston State. As a result of the postgame problems, stud linebacker Jeremy Davis is suspended for the contest with the Colonels. With running back Derek Farmer already injured, the Lumberjacks will need to find a way to win without two of their top players. The loss of Davis at linebacker could be significant with a Nicholls State team that loves to run the ball right at its opponents. Nicholls State is a tough team to figure. The Colonels lost bad to Western Carolina, but posted big home wins against Eastern Washington and Northwestern State. Nicholls State has lost just once at home, and is getting Stephen F. Austin at the right time. The Colonels end the Lumberjacks playoff hopes and keep their chances in the Southland alive with an upset victory. Prediction: Nicholls State 24, Stephen F. Austin 20
Samford (4-5) at No. 15 Jacksonville State (6-1), 5:00 Jacksonville State just had the best bye week of the season. After losing to Tennessee Tech and losing control of the Ohio Valley Conference, the Gamecocks are right back alone in first place in the league after Tennessee Tech and Eastern Kentucky both suffered their second OVC loss of the season last week. If Jacksonville State can control the style of play against Samford, the Gamecocks will get back on the winning track. If the game turns into a wide- open shootout, Samford has the track style offense to cause the Gamecocks defense some problems. Jacksonville State has the ability to run all over a poor Samford defense, and should win the time of possession battle significantly. Jacksonville State’s pass defense has struggled some, but the Gamecocks figure to stop Samford a lot more than the other way around. The defensive stops will be enough to lead to a Gamecock win. Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Samford 24
Bethune-Cookman (5-2) at No. 14 Hampton (7-1), 2:00
Hampton could have the MEAC title sown up by the end of the day. If the Pirates defeat the Wildcats and Howard beats South Carolina State, the MEAC title would be Hampton’s because it would win all the tiebreakers. Even if that scenario doesn’t happen, the Pirates are in great shape to win the MEAC title. Part of the reason for their position, and the 7-1 record, is that Hampton just doesn’t do much of anything wrong. The Pirates are among the nation’s leaders in turnover ratio, are in the top five in kick and punt returns, have an explosive run game and an efficient quarterback. Bethune-Cookman is ranked high in many of those categories as well, which probably indicates as much as anything about how down the bottom of the MEAC is. The winner of this game may well come down to who has a better game at the quarterback position between Bethune-Cookman’s Jarod Rucker and Hampton’s Princeton Shepherd. I say Shepherd does a bit better on his home field, and Hampton’s advantage in balance in other phases of the game will lead to the victory. Prediction: Hampton 31, Bethune-Cookman 24
Northern Arizona (4-4) at No. 10 Montana (6-2), 2:05
The Grizzlies loss to Portland State puts a damper on hopes of a top four seed, but if Montana regroups it is still in good shape to win the Big Sky conference. The Grizzlies play the final three games at home, starting with a Northern Arizona team that looked downright awful against Montana State last week. The Lumberjacks, unofficially ranked No. 30 in the Sports Network top 25, hosted Montana State and got obliterated. The Bobcats held a 53-0 advantage by the half in a game that was never a contest. I don’t think Montana can duplicate that success, but the Grizzlies should be able to pounce on a team that is suddenly down and out of the playoff picture. Montana needs to get a good effort from its defense to feel confident about its chances going forward in the playoffs (or even getting there for that matter). The defense hasn’t shown any signs of being able to completely shut another team down, but can have a better effort against a Northern Arizona offense that has very little skill at wide receiver. Montana’s offense has played well all season and will put up enough points to knock off Northern Arizona. The Grizzlies will rebound from last week’s loss with a good effort. Prediction: Montana 31, Northern Arizona 20
No. 8 New Hampshire (6-2) at Rhode Island (4-4), 12:00
With a huge win at Northeastern, the Wildcats are in great shape for a playoff berth. New Hampshire has wins against Delaware, Rutgers and Villanova, and has very winnable games in the next two with Rhode Island and Towson before finishing the season at Maine. At least New Hampshire gets to take on Rhode Island on the road. The Wildcats are a perfect 5-0 away from home for the first time since 1994, and a 6-0 road record with a win against Rhode Island would make the Wildcats one win away from a playoff berth. The New Hampshire passing offense, led by quarterback Ricky Santos and wide receiver David Ball, will have a field day against the Rhode Island pass defense. The Rams can put up some yardage on the ground against the Wildcats, but it won’t be enough to keep up with what Santos and Ball do. Prediction: New Hampshire 38, Rhode Island 27
No. 5 Western Kentucky (6-2) at Southwest Missouri State (5-4), 2:00
With the No. 5 ranking in the country, it’s not out of the question for the Hilltoppers to move up to a top four seed in the playoffs. It wou
There had to be some pent-up aggression for five teams in the 13-19 range of last week’s top 25. Stephen F. Austin, Northwestern State, Appalachian State, Colgate and Maine all suffered losses that either finished off their playoff chances or put their season in serious jeopardy. The "teens" went just 1-5 last week, and now have daunting tasks to make the playoff field.
Stephen F. Austin lost to Sam Houston State in a close game and has to win the remaining games to have a chance. Northwestern State fell on the road for the second straight week, and now has to win out to have a chance at a playoff berth. Maine lost in a mild upset at Massachusetts and is probably out of playoff contention, and Appalachian State saw its chances go away with a shocking loss at Chattanooga.
Colgate had the best effort of the group of fallen teens in a loss at Lehigh’s Goodman Stadium. About Goodman Stadium, I must say the atmosphere was absolutely enjoyable. With carnival-like concessions and a hill behind the goalpost for extra seating, the stadium had the feel of a minor-league baseball park. Lehigh’s strong alumni attendance at the game and general party pre-game atmosphere in the parking lot added to the great experience.
Moving on to the game itself, the teams played very evenly in two very different halves. In the first half, both offenses moved up and down the field on a long, methodical drives. Each team scored two touchdowns, and each missed mid-range field goals. The Raiders and the Mountain Hawks went to the half tied, 14-14.
The second half was dominated by the defenses. Lehigh intercepted Chris Brown three times, and cashed in on one of the picks for the only score of the half. Lehigh’s Julian Austin picked off Brown in the endzone to end Colgate’s final threat, and put at least a severe damper on the Raiders chances going forward.
"We’ll have to see what happens (with the playoffs)," said Colgate head coach Dick Biddle. "We just need to get a win, we’re not worried about the playoffs."
Colgate at least has hope. So does Stephen F. Austin and Northwestern State. But if these teams don’t turn it around very quickly, it will be tricks instead of treats again on the third weekend in November.
WEEK NINE NOTEBOOK
Team of the Week: Montana State
Talk about seizing on an opportunity. The Bobcats moved into prime playoff position by beating Northern Arizona and moving seven spots in the polls through losses of five teams ahead of them in the rankings. The "Cardiac" Cats had to go down to the wire for their last four victories, but could have skipped the final 50 minutes in a thorough 60-14 thrashing of Northern Arizona. Montana State jumped out to a 22-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, which ballooned to a remarkable 53-0 by halftime. Coming into the game, the Bobcats were just one game up on Northern Arizona in the standings. With just two losses and three games remaining, the Bobcats are in the enviable position of still being able to afford another loss and still make the postseason. Montana State had to hold on and survive for a month, but plenty of teams in I-AA would love to switch positions with the Bobcats now.
Mid-Major Team of the Week: Drake
Dayton looked nearly invincible against Mid-Major competition, but the Bulldogs posted a tremendous defensive effort to beat the Flyers on the road. Drake won the North Division of the Pioneer League outright by making a goal line stand on the game’s final play and winning, 13-6. Drake is on a six-game winning streak for the first time since 1998, and moved its record to 7-2. A loss to Wisconsin-Platteville in September could ultimately doom the Bulldogs in the quest for the Sports Network Cup, but Drake is right on the cusp of the No. 1 spot if Monmouth falters.
Best Top 25 Win: No. 8 Sam Houston State 31, No. 13 Stephen F. Austin 28
In a heated rivalry, the Bearkats walked away with a huge road victory to solidify their chances at a top four seed in the playoffs. Sam Houston State got the Lumberjacks best effort, but kept responding by making plays and holding on. Stephen F. Austin took the lead twice in the second half, but each time the Bearkats answered within three minutes with a Dustin Long touchdown pass to reclaim the advantage. The Lumberjacks moved down the field with a chance to tie or take the lead in the final minutes before the Bearkats defense held and defensive lineman Steven Hagler blocked a field goal attempt to preserve the victory. Stephen F. Austin now has to win out to have a shot at the postseason, while Sam Houston State is only a win or two away from punching its ticket.
Worst Top 25 Loss: Chattanooga 59, No. 17 Appalachian State 56
Appalachian State got through the meat of its schedule and only had to win three games against the bottom of the Southern Conference to basically assure a playoff berth. It only took one game to effectively eliminate the Mountaineers from any talk of the postseason. Like expected, Appalachian State scored at will against one of the worst defenses in the country. But the Mountaineer defense made Chattanooga look like the 1980’s 49ers and Cedric Stevens played the role of Joe Montana. Stevens passed at will and the Mocs rallied from 28-7 down to defeat the Mountaineers. Appalachian’s road woes and defense are ultimately its undoing this year. The Mountaineers surrender 36 points per game and have yet to win even one game away from home, a place they’ll now be staying at on Thanksgiving weekend.
Best Game: UC Davis 36, No. 5 Cal Poly 33
Cal Poly finally losing was not a shock, but the way the Mustangs fell to UC Davis was a surprise. Plagued by offensive woes all season, Cal Poly played one of its best games on offense but for once the defense faltered in what became a second half shootout. After falling behind, 21-7, at halftime, the Mustangs stormed back and took a 24-21 lead early in the fourth quarter. UC Davis regained the lead at 28-24 with 10 minutes left, but Cal Poly came back again with a touchdown and a field goal to take a 33-28 lead. The Mustangs defense had faced the situation of stopping an offense late in the game before, but was not up to the task this time around. Davis gained possession on its own 47-yard line with just 40 seconds left and no timeouts, and then moved to the Cal Poly 14 after a pass interference call and a 24-yard completion. Jon Grant, who threw for 393 yards, hit Tony Kays with a 14-yard strike with 13 seconds left to provide the winning margin.
Play of the Week: On a day of upsets, New Hampshire’s Corey Graham made sure that his team would not fall victim. Graham led the Wildcats with 13 tackles, but it was his interception with 5:24 left in the game that decided the outcome at Northeastern. Graham picked off Northeastern quarterback Shawn Brady and raced 25 yards for the gamewinning score in a 27-23 UNH win. With just two losses and three quality wins, New Hampshire remains in good shape to earn a playoff bid.
Stat of the Week: 1337
Combined yards in Chattanooga’s 59-56 win against Appalachian State. The Mocs gained 695 yards, while the Moutaineers garnered 642.
Now, let’s take a look at the week that was, and the week that will be, in I-AA football:
MID-MAJOR SHAKEUP
With losses by the top two teams in The Sports Network Mid-Major top 10, the race for The Sports Network Cup changed greatly Saturday. No. 4 Drake went into Dayton and defeated the top-ranked Flyers, 13-6. No. 3 Monmouth held off No. 2 Central Connecticut State, 9-6. With the wins, Monmouth moved up to No. 1 in the country and Drake now holds the No. 2 position. If Monmouth wins out, the Hawks figure to hang on and win The Sports Network Cup. Monmouth would be a very worthy champion with a 10-1 record and a win against Georgetown, but it’s a shame that Monmouth and Drake (if they win out) can’t play it out on the field like the rest of I-AA does. If the Mid-Majors accept the fact that they are not going to be considered for the I-AA playoff field, a title game after the final week of the season would be an excellent way to decide a champion. Politics and money will probably get in the way of this becoming a reality, but it would be nice to play it out on the field instead of going to a I-A style poll.
GREAT GAME, UGLY ENDING
Sam Houston State defeated Stephen F. Austin in a classic meeting against rivals, but unfortunately the game turned sour after the final seconds ticked away. The teams got into an ugly brawl at midfield following Sam Houston State’s win, and though who and how started the fight is up for debate the ramifications are serious for both teams. The Southland Conference suspended 16 players following the contest, league commissioner Tom Burnett announced on Tuesday. Stephen F. Austin’s Brandon Garrett, Robert Castillo, Rodney Fuller, Erik Wilson, Ryan Smith, Jeremy Davis, Miguel Toulon and Cedric Reescano shall serve a one-game suspension during SFA’s Nov. 6 game at Nicholls State. Sam Houston’s Bernard Campbell, Scorpio Babers, Elijah Simon, Steve Pickering, Ryan Dretke, Adam Karas, John Griffin and Brad Baca shall serve the same suspension during Sam Houston’s home game Nov. 6 versus McNeese State."Per the bylaws of the Southland Conference, the league cannot and will not tolerate such unsportsmanlike acts, no matter the degree of rivalry between institutions," Burnett said following a review of the incident. "This conference has devoted a great deal of time to improving sportsmanship, and has developed thorough guidelines to address such poor behavior."
JUST FOR FUN
Sometimes the best part of following sports is just to make guesses and speculation for fun. I know, I’m kind of a dork with these things, but I think I’ve done a mock field of 64 before the college basketball field is announced every year since I was about 13. When life moved on to college, the joy of mock brackets even moved on to who might get married first (Nick, you got it buddy). Now on the I-AA scene, I have a new group of brackets to try to project before they are released. Complicating matters is questions over who will get the first round home games, but with the regional setting I should be able to come up with a decent guess for what the committee would come up with on Nov. 21. The following is my current projections for the bracket, using the field of 16 projected earlier in the week:
Region I; New Hampshire at Lehigh; Hampton at No. 4 Delaware.
Region II; Wofford at James Madison; William & Mary at No. 1 Georgia Southern.
Region III; Montana State at No. 2 Southern Illinois; Cal Poly at Montana.
Region IV Jacksonville State at No. 3 Sam Houston State; Furman at Western Kentucky.
THE GAMES
I braved the storm of top 25 upsets and came out in decent shape with a 70 percent rate of winners. I almost left Lehigh’s Goodman Stadium with an exactly right prediction, but a missed field goal by both teams meant my 24-17 call was off by three points each way. I have hit all the marquee matchups in the past two weeks, though that could be a challenge this week with four games pitting ranked opponents on the schedule.
Last Week’s Record: 22-9 (.710) Season Record: 213-80 (.727)
QUICK HITS
Massachusetts (4-5) at Northeastern (3-5), 12:00
The meeting in suburban Boston still has plenty of sizzle, but the meat of the matchup is not as strong with both teams eliminated from playoff contention. Massachusetts head coach Don Brown left Northeastern to coach the Minutemen in the offseason, and his exit was not graceful to say the least. Northeastern was upset about the way Brown left, and eventually the schools compromised and Brown was suspended for the first three games of the season. The Huskies figure to be fired up to beat their ex-coach, but both teams could use some wins to salvage what’s left of what was once a promising season. Both teams were ranked for most of the season but have been casualties of the brutal Atlantic 10 schedule. UMass hasn’t stopped the run all season and the offense has been spotty, while Northeastern has scored but hasn’t stopped opponents in the past couple games. A player to watch in this game is Northeastern running back James West, who earned the Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Week honor with a strong performance against New Hampshire. If West can have success running, the Huskies should win. Neither team has much left to play for, and that situation usually tilts in the advantage of the team playing in front of its home crowd. Throw in the extra motivation of facing their ex-coach and the Huskies should come away with the victory. Prediction: Northeastern 31, Massachusetts 24
Fordham (5-3) at Bucknell (4-4), 1:00
Fordham is hanging around in the playoff picture with just one loss in Patriot League play. Part of the reason for their position is games with Lehigh and Colgate still await, but the Rams have a chance nonetheless. Fordham could still be technically alive with a loss to Bucknell, but dropping the contest to the Bison will probably put the Rams away. Fordham has had its problems stopping the run, and that could be a huge task against the Bison. Bucknell quarterback Daris Wilson rushed for 252 yards and five touchdowns in last week’s win at Holy Cross. Fordham needs to put up points with Derrick Daniels to keep up, but the Rams might not see the ball enough with Bucknell controlling play on the ground. The Bison will get a home win and cripple the Rams playoff hopes. Prediction: Bucknell 27, Fordham 20
Eastern Kentucky (3-5) at Tennessee-Martin (2-7), 1:00
With last week’s overtime loss to Murray State, the Colonels are on the verge of playoff elimination. Even with a win, Eastern Kentucky could end the week barely hanging on to its Ohio Valley title hopes. It might have been a different story if quarterback Matt Guice was healthy all year, because Eastern Kentucky has moved the ball and put up points at a much better rate when he’s at the helm. Wide receiver Andre Ralston was also out in the loss to Murray State, and if either is out against UT-Martin the offense could struggle to produce. It won’t matter much here, as Eastern Kentucky is a much better team. Prediction: Eastern Kentucky 27, Tennessee-Martin 16
Howard (5-3) at South Carolina State (6-2), 1:30
By the end of the day, the MEAC race could be wide open or and open and shut case. If Howard can knock off the Bulldogs, both teams will have two losses. The Bethune-Cookman/Hampton loser will also have two losses, and if the Wildcats defeat the Pirates, Howard would still have a shot. That’s a lot to ask for the Bison, but at least they still have a shot. Howard has played some pretty good football since an 0-2 start, and has a chance to come in and knock off the Bulldogs. The formula for South Carolina State is even simpler. The Bulldogs just need to win out and have Hampton lose once to win the MEAC automatic bid, and would even have a shot as an at-large entrant with a 9-2 record. South Carolina State has played well in every game except one, and can run and stop the run. That Bulldogs keep their MEAC and at-large postseason hopes going with a win. Prediction: South Carolina State 30, Howard 20
Northern Iowa (4-4) at Indiana State (4-5), 1:30
Northern Iowa is peaking. The Panthers are looking like the juggernaut they were expected to be when the season started with a healthy Terrance Freeney and a strong defense leading to double-digit victories. In the end, UNI will probably just end up as the most talented team not to make the playoffs with four close losses to very good teams. Indiana State is going in the other direction. The Sycamores had a great run in non-conference play and won their first Gateway game of the season, but have not played well at all since. The trends will continue, and UNI will win by a big margin again. Prediction: UNI 38, Indiana State 17
Elon (2-6) at Appalachian State (5-4), 2:00
The Mountaineers are one of the most unpredictable teams in I-AA football. Appalachian State is great at home and terrible on the road. They look like a top 10 team one week then play like a mediocre team the next. The defense played well against Furman and Wofford, but came one point away from giving up 60 to Chattanooga. The biggest reason to keep following the Mountaineers is Richie Williams and Davon Fowlkes. The duo puts on a show every week and deserve a better fate than a season without the playoffs. While Appalachian State has been inconsistent, Elon has just been consistently bad. The Mountaineers finish 6-0 on their home turf with an easy win. Prediction: Appalachian State 42, Elon 14
Hofstra (4-4) at Maine (4-4), 2:00
Another of the disappointing four-loss teams, Maine’s fall from the playoff picture was not altogether shocking because of the Black Bears very difficult schedule. But looking back on the season and the losses, Maine should not be on the outside looking in at the playoffs right now. Maine surrendered two leads in the final minutes and lost on a blocked extra point at Massachusetts. The loss to the Minutemen was particularly disheartening because Maine was through the tough part of the schedule and still only had three losses. The Black Bears have the talent of a top 15 team, and should at least close out the season strong. Hofstra has played everybody tough so don’t expect a blowout, but the Black Bears should at least do enough to hold on to the win. Prediction: Maine 28, Hofstra 21
Eastern Illinois (4-4) at Tennessee Tech (5-3), 3:00
For a team with a 4-4 record and two conference losses, Eastern Illinois has a good amount of control over its playoff chances. The Panthers can drop a third conference loss on Tennessee Tech, and have an opportunity to deal Jacksonville State a second conference defeat next week. They already beat two-loss Murray State, so winning out would leave Eastern Illinois with a very good shot to earn the OVC’s automatic bid. The Panthers are one of the more unpredictable teams in the conference so far. They had great efforts against Murray State and Tennessee State, but lost bad to Eastern Kentucky and fell by 18 to lowly Tennessee-Martin. Tennessee Tech moved into contention with a win against Jacksonville State two weeks ago, but saw its opportunity to win out and make the playoffs go away with last week’s loss at Samford. The Golden Eagles have played great defense, and the offense has been there most of the way. Eastern Illinois has been too inconsistent to expect a four-game win streak to close the season, but the young roster is getting better and will get the job done on the road. Prediction: Eastern Illinois 24, Tennessee Tech 17
No. 17 Montana State (6-2) at Sacramento State (2-6), 7:05
The Bobcats are peaking at the right time. In the first three games, the offense stumbled and Montana State was off to just a 1-2 start. The offense didn’t exactly look great against Idaho State and Weber State, but the Bobcats found a way to gut out victories. In the last three contests, Travis Lulay and the Montana State offense has gotten hot to complement a solid defense. It all came together with Saturday’s 60-14 whipping of Northern Arizona, and Montana State needs two more strong efforts in the last three games to earn a playoff berth. The last two games are against Eastern Washington and Montana, so the ‘Cats could really use a win at Sacramento State. The Hornets haven’t shown too much in the Big Sky, and don’t figure to prove too much of a problem for Montana State. Prediction: Montana State 31, Sacramento State 14
Columbia (1-6) at No. 16 Harvard (7-0), 12:00
And then there was one. The Crimson are the only undefeated team left in I-AA, though they just survived in a 13-12 win at rival Dartmouth. The Big Green defense did a good job of bottling up Payton candidate Clifton Dawson and held the star running back without a touchdown for the first time this season. Harvard needs to get the offense going again with a big Ivy matchup with perennial conference power Penn coming next week. Columbia’s 83rd ranked defense is a good unit to get going against, and the Crimson will play well on both sides of the ball to go into the Penn showdown with an 8-0 record. Prediction: Harvard 27, Columbia 10
Gardner-Webb (3-5) at No. 12 Wofford (6-2), 1:30
The Terriers could pose one of the most challenging dilemmas for the committee on selection day. If Wofford beats Gardner-Webb and VMI yet loses to Furman, the Terriers would finish 8-3 with losses to three ranked opponents but no wins over top 25 teams. Take last year’s playoff success into account, and the Terriers fate in that situation would be tough to determine. The Terriers can put any doubt to rest by defeating Furman next week, and Gardner-Webb should serve as little more than a tune-up for that game. The Bulldogs haven’t stopped any of their better opponents this year, and Wofford will have a chance to fine-tune its ground game before next week. Prediction: Wofford 35, Gardner- Webb 13
No. 9 Lehigh (7-1) at Georgetown (2-6), 12:30
The Mountain Hawks are shooting for win No. 600 in the program’s history, and should have no problem reaching that mark against pitiful Georgetown. The Georgetown game comes at a good time for Brown and White, who played rival Colgate last week and still have Fordham and rival Lafayette left on the schedule. Georgetown’s offense has scored single-digit points five times and has not scored more than 21 points in any game since the season opener. Lehigh’s Mark Borda is peaking at quarterback, and the Mountain Hawks have had no trouble disposing of some of their weaker competition easily. That trend should ring true again in an easy Lehigh victory. Prediction: Lehigh 38, Georgetown 10
GOOD GAMES
No. 25 Alabama State (6-1) at Grambling State (4-4), 2:30
After winning the SWAC East division in his first season, Alabama State head coach Charlie Coe could be on his way to another title. The Hornets came from 11 points down to defeat Alabama A & M, 24-20, last week and have a one-game lead in the East division. With the win and a 6-1 record, the Hornets became the first SWAC team to crack the Sports Network top 25 since Grambling State fell out after the first week of the season. The Tigers struggled a bit after Bruce Eugene went down for the season with an injury, but they’ve rebounded to win four of the last six and two straight. The Tigers have the advantage of playing in front of the Homecoming crowd, and the offense has played well in the latter half of the season. But Alabama State may be the most balanced and most talented team in the conference, leading the league in total offense and placing second in total defense. SWAC rushing leader Keldrick Williams will have a good effort against the Tigers defense, and the slight edge on both sides of the ball will be enough for Alabama State to overcome GSU’s homefield advantage. Prediction: Alabama State 31, Grambling State 27
Lafayette (6-2) at No. 24 Colgate (5-3), 12:30
The Leopards success in the Patriot League is really pretty remarkable. Lafayette had the deck stacked against it with four conference road games and only two at home, but the Leopards have already posted wins at Georgetown, Bucknell and Fordham and can sweep the road part of the Patriot League schedule with a victory at Colgate. If they do, Lafayette can win out at home and win the Patriot League outright. Even with a loss, the Leopards will likely still have a chance to force a three-way tie by defeating Lehigh in the season finale. The Raiders are in a much more dire situation. With a loss, Colgate will be done in the Patriot League and will see its playoff hopes dashed a year after making the national title game. The Raiders last three games are all tough, but if they win out Colgate might have an argument for an at-large at 8-3 considering last season’s success. With that in mind, Colgate should have an inspired effort to stop the potent Lafayette ground game. The Raiders have talented skill players on offense too, and aren’t going to see their playoff hopes go away by losing on their home turf. Prediction: Colgate 28, Lafayette 17
Texas State (4-4) at No. 22 Northwestern State (5-3), 5:00
What a difference two weeks makes in the college football season. Two weeks ago, Northwestern State was sitting at 5-1 and No. 9 in the country, and a 3-2 record the rest of the way would probably be enough to make the playoffs. The Demons then proceeded to lose at Nicholls State and North Dakota State the last two weeks, and now have to sweep the remaining three games against the best teams in the Southland. Texas State has gone the other way in the past two games. The Bobcats were close in their losses earlier in the season, but at 2-4 couldn’t be considered a serious contender for the Southland championship. Texas State then upset Stephen F. Austin, and last week ended a 17-game road- losing streak by trouncing McNeese State. Northwestern State appears to have the better roster and should win the game, but the Demons have given away games with penalties and have not played well in the second half the past two weeks. If Northwestern State can cut down on its near 100 yards per game average in penalties, it would have a shot to win out the rest of the way. The Demons are much better at home than on the road, and they’ll stay in the race with a win against Texas State. Prediction: Northwestern State 30, Texas State 17
No. 20 Penn (6-1) at Princeton (4-3), 1:00
Penn’s defense led the way again as the Quakers extended their Ivy League winning streak to 19 games. Sam Mathews ran for a score early in the fourth quarter, and the defense held off Brown the rest of the way. Penn’s offense isn’t always dynamic, but Mathews has produced at running back, Dan Castles has made big plays at wide receiver, and Pat McDermott has made very few mistakes at the quarterback position. The ball-control offense serves as a great compliment to the stout defense, and the Quakers have shown week after week they have a penchant for winning games down the stretch. Princeton struggled in the close games department last year, but has turned it around this year until last week’s 21-20 loss at Cornell. Princeton still has hopes for an Ivy League title, but the Tigers are a little behind Penn on both sides of the ball and the Quakers always seem to find a way to get the job done. Penn will find a way again. Prediction: Penn 20, Princeton 17
No. 18 Stephen F. Austin (5-3) at Nicholls State (4-3), 7:30
Hopes were high a few weeks ago, but the Lumberjacks are on a downward spiral after two losses and a ugly postgame altercation following the loss to Sam Houston State. As a result of the postgame problems, stud linebacker Jeremy Davis is suspended for the contest with the Colonels. With running back Derek Farmer already injured, the Lumberjacks will need to find a way to win without two of their top players. The loss of Davis at linebacker could be significant with a Nicholls State team that loves to run the ball right at its opponents. Nicholls State is a tough team to figure. The Colonels lost bad to Western Carolina, but posted big home wins against Eastern Washington and Northwestern State. Nicholls State has lost just once at home, and is getting Stephen F. Austin at the right time. The Colonels end the Lumberjacks playoff hopes and keep their chances in the Southland alive with an upset victory. Prediction: Nicholls State 24, Stephen F. Austin 20
Samford (4-5) at No. 15 Jacksonville State (6-1), 5:00 Jacksonville State just had the best bye week of the season. After losing to Tennessee Tech and losing control of the Ohio Valley Conference, the Gamecocks are right back alone in first place in the league after Tennessee Tech and Eastern Kentucky both suffered their second OVC loss of the season last week. If Jacksonville State can control the style of play against Samford, the Gamecocks will get back on the winning track. If the game turns into a wide- open shootout, Samford has the track style offense to cause the Gamecocks defense some problems. Jacksonville State has the ability to run all over a poor Samford defense, and should win the time of possession battle significantly. Jacksonville State’s pass defense has struggled some, but the Gamecocks figure to stop Samford a lot more than the other way around. The defensive stops will be enough to lead to a Gamecock win. Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Samford 24
Bethune-Cookman (5-2) at No. 14 Hampton (7-1), 2:00
Hampton could have the MEAC title sown up by the end of the day. If the Pirates defeat the Wildcats and Howard beats South Carolina State, the MEAC title would be Hampton’s because it would win all the tiebreakers. Even if that scenario doesn’t happen, the Pirates are in great shape to win the MEAC title. Part of the reason for their position, and the 7-1 record, is that Hampton just doesn’t do much of anything wrong. The Pirates are among the nation’s leaders in turnover ratio, are in the top five in kick and punt returns, have an explosive run game and an efficient quarterback. Bethune-Cookman is ranked high in many of those categories as well, which probably indicates as much as anything about how down the bottom of the MEAC is. The winner of this game may well come down to who has a better game at the quarterback position between Bethune-Cookman’s Jarod Rucker and Hampton’s Princeton Shepherd. I say Shepherd does a bit better on his home field, and Hampton’s advantage in balance in other phases of the game will lead to the victory. Prediction: Hampton 31, Bethune-Cookman 24
Northern Arizona (4-4) at No. 10 Montana (6-2), 2:05
The Grizzlies loss to Portland State puts a damper on hopes of a top four seed, but if Montana regroups it is still in good shape to win the Big Sky conference. The Grizzlies play the final three games at home, starting with a Northern Arizona team that looked downright awful against Montana State last week. The Lumberjacks, unofficially ranked No. 30 in the Sports Network top 25, hosted Montana State and got obliterated. The Bobcats held a 53-0 advantage by the half in a game that was never a contest. I don’t think Montana can duplicate that success, but the Grizzlies should be able to pounce on a team that is suddenly down and out of the playoff picture. Montana needs to get a good effort from its defense to feel confident about its chances going forward in the playoffs (or even getting there for that matter). The defense hasn’t shown any signs of being able to completely shut another team down, but can have a better effort against a Northern Arizona offense that has very little skill at wide receiver. Montana’s offense has played well all season and will put up enough points to knock off Northern Arizona. The Grizzlies will rebound from last week’s loss with a good effort. Prediction: Montana 31, Northern Arizona 20
No. 8 New Hampshire (6-2) at Rhode Island (4-4), 12:00
With a huge win at Northeastern, the Wildcats are in great shape for a playoff berth. New Hampshire has wins against Delaware, Rutgers and Villanova, and has very winnable games in the next two with Rhode Island and Towson before finishing the season at Maine. At least New Hampshire gets to take on Rhode Island on the road. The Wildcats are a perfect 5-0 away from home for the first time since 1994, and a 6-0 road record with a win against Rhode Island would make the Wildcats one win away from a playoff berth. The New Hampshire passing offense, led by quarterback Ricky Santos and wide receiver David Ball, will have a field day against the Rhode Island pass defense. The Rams can put up some yardage on the ground against the Wildcats, but it won’t be enough to keep up with what Santos and Ball do. Prediction: New Hampshire 38, Rhode Island 27
No. 5 Western Kentucky (6-2) at Southwest Missouri State (5-4), 2:00
With the No. 5 ranking in the country, it’s not out of the question for the Hilltoppers to move up to a top four seed in the playoffs. It wou
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