Special Report from The Sports Network
11/2/2004 12:00:00 AM | Football
Special Report I - I-AA Playoffs: Livin' On a Prayer
By Matt Dougherty, The Sports Network
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Maybe when he’s done campaigning for John Kerry, Jon Bon Jovi can sing some inspirational tunes to I-AA schools that have only prayers remaining in the playoff race.
With tight races in the Ohio Valley Conference, MEAC and Southland, many teams that aren't on the national radar need music and prayers to hang on to the hope of a miracle run and a lot of assistance to earn the league’s automatic bid. So Howard, Nicholls State and Eastern Kentucky, you’re still with us for at least another week. The prayers probably won’t be answered, but at least the trio can hang onto some faint hope as we enter the final three weeks of rampant speculation for the 16-team I-AA playoff field.
Before we begin a peek at the potential teams for the 2004 playoff field, let’s review a few of the procedures that will leave some teams blue and make others rejoice on selection Sunday.
Sixteen playoff teams will be announced on Nov. 21, of which eight will be automatic qualifiers (the champions of the Atlantic 10, Big Sky, Gateway, MEAC, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland conferences) and eight will be chosen as at-large entries. A committee of I-AA directors of athletics will be asked to judge at-large teams on the following points, which come straight out of the NCAA manual:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket; 2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference; 3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, more than three losses will place a team in jeopardy of not being selected; 4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; 5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.
Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is not eligible for the playoff field:
- The Ivy League does not participate in the I-AA playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 11, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. Grambling and Southern, which play in the Nov. 27 Bayou Classic, are also ineligible for the playoffs due to conflict with the first round.; - The Great West Conference does not have an automatic bid, but both Cal Poly and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. UC Davis, Northern Colorado, North Dakota State and South Dakota State are in their transitional phase from Division II football and are not playoff eligible.; - The five-team Big South Conference’s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid.; - The 22 teams from the three "I-AA Mid-Major" conferences (MAAC, NEC, Pioneer) are technically playoff eligible, though no team from any of those non- scholarship leagues has ever been chosen for the field.;
Now that we’ve established the criteria, let’s take a first look at the prospects of the 36 I-AA teams that can still entertain playoff prospects going into the first weekend of November. Schools are ranked by their probability of making the 16-team field, as determined by The Sports Network, and not by current top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.
No. 1 Georgia Southern (8-1, 6-0 Southern)
THE GAMES: at Furman (11/6), at Florida International (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Eagles have basically already guaranteed their spot in the field of 16, and can hang on to a top two seed by winning the final two games. Georgia Southern has already clinched a tie for the Southern Conference title and can win the title outright with a win at Furman.
No. 2 Southern Illinois (8-1, 5-0 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Illinois State (11/6), Indiana State (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Salukis keep running through the Gateway and will clinch the conference’s automatic bid with just one more win. Winning out should leave Southern Illinois with a top two seed, while the Salukis would appear to be in already even if they shockingly lose the final two.
No. 3 Sam Houston State (7-1, 2-0 Southland)
THE GAMES: McNeese State (11/6), at Northwestern State (11/13), Texas State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Bearkats’ win at Stephen F. Austin leaves them in great shape for a playoff berth, at least. Sam Houston State is tied for the Southland lead and has a chance to move up to a top four seed by winning out. The Bearkats might be able to suffer two more losses and still sneak in but should play well enough to avoid sweating on selection day.
No. 4 James Madison (7-1, 5-0 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Delaware (11/6), William & Mary (11/13), at Towson (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Dukes have the best situation of any remaining hopeful in the Atlantic 10. James Madison can win the conference and possibly even move up to a top four seed by winning out, and has the advantage of playing the toughest remaining games at home. If James Madison loses twice it still has a chance, but that’s not a road the Dukes want to explore.
No. 5 Lehigh (7-1, 3-0 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Georgetown (11/6), Fordham (11/13), at Lafayette (11/20)
OUTLOOK: By virtue of beating Colgate, the Mountain Hawks are in great shape to win the Patriot League and maybe even get a home game with a 10-1 record. The toughest game remaining is at Lafayette and every game is very winnable. If they lose one of the first two contests and still beat the Leopards, Lehigh would likely still be in good shape for the conference title. With history going against a second team from the Patriot League, any loss that affects the conference title could be damaging.
No. 6 New Hampshire (6-2, 3-2 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at Rhode Island (11/6), Towson (11/13), at Maine (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Wildcats big win at Northeastern leaves them in good position for a playoff bid. With wins at Delaware, Rutgers and Villanova, New Hampshire should still be comfortable with an 8-3 record. The games at Rhode Island and against Towson will likely lift UNH into the playoff field, but a slip up in one of those two will make the contest at Maine very interesting
No. 7 Montana (6-2, 3-1 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: Northern Arizona (11/6), Sacramento State (11/13), Montana State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After losing at Portland State, the Grizzlies will need to take two out of the last three at home to feel good about their playoff chances. Winning out will give Montana at least a share of the Big Sky title, but with two losses the Grizzlies will need some help to earn a top four seed. It’s hard to imagine the Grizzlies dropping two of three at home and falling out of the playoffs altogether, but surely their in-state rivals would love to be the ones to knock the Grizzlies off.
No. 8 Western Kentucky (6-2, 4-1 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Southwest Missouri State (11/6), Western Illinois (11/13), at Florida International (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Hilltoppers should be safe if they win two out of the final three, and every game is a good matchup for Western Kentucky. Three wins and a 9-2 record could help Western Kentucky earn a home game. The Gateway automatic bid is highly unlikely as Southern Illinois needs just one more win to clinch the title.
No. 9 Delaware (6-2, 5-0 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at James Madison (11/6), at Richmond (11/13), Villanova (11/20)
OUTLOOK: If Delaware can win two of the last three, they’ll be in the playoff bracket again. The Blue Hens can clinch the Atlantic 10 automatic bid by winning out, and wins in the final three games would likely mean a top four seed and home games in Newark. Losses to James Madison and Villanova would probably leave Delaware on the outside looking in.
No. 10 Cal Poly (7-1, 3-1 Great West)
THE GAMES: at Eastern Washington (11/6), Northern Colorado (11/13), at Sacramento State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: At 7-1, it appears Cal Poly can afford at least one more loss and still make the playoffs. But in a conference without an automatic bid, even two losses would leave the Mustangs sweating a bit on selection day. Sweeping the remaining games would seem to put the Mustangs in good position to host a round, but a top four seed could be tough to pick up in the first-year Great West.
No. 11 Furman (6-2, 3-1 Southern)
THE GAMES: Georgia Southern (11/6), at Wofford (11/13), Chattanooga (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Furman can afford a loss to Georgia Southern, but falling for a fourth time would likely doom the Paladins chances. If Furman can defeat Georgia Southern and win out, the Paladins will win the Southern Conference bid and notch top four seed.
No. 12 William & Mary (6-2, 4-1 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Villanova (11/6), at James Madison (11/13), Richmond (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Tribe’s only losses this year are at North Carolina and Delaware, so they could probably still feel safe with one more loss. The season finale at Richmond won’t be much trouble, so William & Mary will need to win one of the next two to move into comfortable playoff position.
No. 13 Montana State (6-2, 4-0 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: at Sacramento State (11/6), Eastern Washington (11/13), at Montana (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The "Cardiac" Cats barely needed to play the second half to whip Northern Arizona and are in good shape for a playoff berth and the Big Sky title. If Montana State wins out, the Bobcats take the conference title and have a good chance to stay at home for at least one playoff game. They can afford one more loss and still get an at-large (or possibly still win the Big Sky), but two more losses would do in the Bobcats.
No. 14 Hampton (7-1, 4-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: Bethune-Cookman (11/6), North Carolina A & T (11/13), at Savannah State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Pirates control their own destiny in the MEAC race. Wins over Bethune-Cookman and North Carolina A & T would put Hampton into the playoffs, and victories in the final three contests might even help the Pirates get a home game. If Hampton loses one of the MEAC games, the Pirates will have a tough time winning the conference and would have to wait for an at-large bid that might not come.
No. 15 Jacksonville State (6-1, 4-1 OVC)
THE GAMES: Samford (11/6), at Eastern Illinois (11/13), SE Missouri (11/20)
OUTLOOK: With Tennessee Tech’s loss to Samford, Jacksonville State is back in control of its own destiny in the OVC race. Four teams trail the Gamecocks by one game, so a loss could mean a complicated tiebreaker that Jacksonville State would love to avoid. If they lose a game, the Gamecocks would finish with just seven wins against I-AA competition, meaning an at-large bid would be unlikely. But with a formula of win and your in, Jacksonville State has to feel a lot safer than other bubble teams around the country.
No. 16 Wofford (6-2, 4-2 Southern)
THE GAMES: at Gardner-Webb (11/6), Furman (11/13), at VMI (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The picture for the Terriers looks much better after Appalachian State’s loss and losses of other teams in the top 25. Wofford would feel really good about itself by winning out and finishing 9-2, but the Terriers now would have a shot to make the field with an 8-3 mark despite three conference losses.
No. 17 Northwestern State (5-3, 1-1 Southland)
THE GAMES: Texas State (11/6), Sam Houston State (11/13), at Stephen F. Austin (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Demons went from virtual playoff lock to just hanging on with losses in the last two games. The good news for Northwestern State, though, is winning out will assure the Demons of a playoff berth as the Southland champion, providing Nicholls State doesn’t also win out. With three marginal wins earlier in the season, the Demons will definitely need to win the final three to have any chance.
No. 18 Eastern Washington (6-3, 5-1 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: Cal Poly (11/6), at Montana State (11/13)
OUTLOOK: Wins in the final two games will earn the Eagles a playoff berth. Eastern Washington has made a great recovery from an 0-2 start, but if it loses one of the final two that comeback could be for naught. If the Eagles lose to Cal Poly and defeat Montana State, they would win the Big Sky title and automatic bid if Montana loses another game.
No. 19 Lafayette (6-2, 3-0 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Colgate (11/6), Holy Cross (11/13), Lehigh (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Flying under the radar, the Leopards just need to win out to capture the Patriot League title. With wins in the next two games, Lafayette would set up a likely winner-take-all showdown with Lehigh in the season finale. The Leopards have some other scenarios where they could take the automatic bid even with a loss to Colgate, but none of those pictures look rosy and an at-large bid is probably not going to happen.
No. 20 Stephen F. Austin (5-3, 0-2 Southland)
THE GAMES: at Nicholls State (11/6), McNeese State (11/13), Northwestern State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After starting 5-1 and winning all the close games, the Lumberjacks have lost the last two by a field goal and will need to win out to gain a bid. With an 0-2 record in the Southland, the conference title is already out of the question. Stephen F. Austin has more talent than Nicholls State and McNeese State, and will need to beat both teams to set up a final game showdown with Northwestern State
No. 21 Colgate (5-3, 2-1 Patriot)
THE GAMES: Lafayette (11/6), at Bucknell (11/13), at Fordham (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Raiders best chance to win the Patriot League would be to win out and have Lehigh lose twice. Colgate will be effectively eliminated from the playoff race with any more losses, and the athletic directors of teams that are not involved could decide a three-team tie between Colgate, Lafayette and Lehigh. An 8-3 record might be good enough for an at-large spot and last season’s success could help the case, but the Raiders won’t have any big wins to show the committee.
No. 22 South Carolina State (6-2, 3-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: Howard (11/6), Morgan State (11/13), North Carolina A & T (11/2)
OUTLOOK: The formula for the Bears is pretty simple. South Carolina State needs to win out and have Bethune-Cookman defeat Hampton to earn the MEAC automatic bid. If they don’t gain the automatic spot, the Bears would have a case for an at-large spot by finishing 9-2 in the conference with losses to only Wofford and Hampton. But after both conference teams lost by double digits a year ago, the committee may be reluctant to take two from the MEAC again.
No. 23 Villanova (6-3, 3-3 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at William & Mary (11/6), at Delaware (11/20)
OUTLOOK: When the Wildcats lost to Northeastern on October 9, they were pretty much written off in the Atlantic 10 with a 3-3 mark and 0-3 start in the conference. After three convincing wins against the weaker teams in the league, Villanova will probably be in the playoffs if it wins the final two games on the road. That’s no easy task, but the prospects sure look better now than they did three weeks ago.
No. 24 Texas State (4-4, 2-0 Southland)
THE GAMES: at Northwestern State (11/6), Nicholls State (11/13), at Sam Houston State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Like Lafayette, Texas State might not be considered a contender in general but is in great shape in its conference. The Bobcats won’t go as an at- large, so they’ll probably have to win the rest of their conference games to capture the Southland title. They could still win the league with a 4-1 mark, but it would probably take a win over Sam Houston in the season finale because the Bearkats don’t figure to lose the next two games.
No. 25 Bethune-Cookman (5-2, 4-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: at Hampton (11/6), Howard (11/13), Florida A & M (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Wildcats need to beat Hampton and Howard and have South Carolina State lose to capture the MEAC title. Bethune-Cookman would finish 8-2 by winning out, but that might not be good enough for selection as an at-large after going with the same mark last season.
No. 26 Eastern Illinois (4-4, 3-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: at Tennessee Tech (11/6), Jacksonville State (11/13), at Samford (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Remember, this is a team that has one of the three wins over a I-A opponent this season (defeated Eastern Michigan, 31-28). The Panthers have been erratic and the loss to Tennessee-Martin might come back and bite them. Eastern Illinois does control its own destiny much more than the other two-loss teams in the OVC because it still plays Jacksonville State. If the Panthers beat the Gamecocks, they would win the head-to-head tiebreak. Only Eastern Kentucky would pose a problem in the tiebreak situation, so Eastern Illinois has its fate largely in its own hands.
No. 27 Nicholls State (4-3, 1-1 Southland)
THE GAMES: Stephen F. Austin (11/6), at Texas State (11/13), at McNeese State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Colonels aren’t in bad shape for the conference title as they have already faced Sam Houston State and Northwestern State. The best shot would be to win the remaining games and finish in a tie with just Northwestern State for the top spot, which Nicholls State would take by virtue of its victory over the Demons. Earning the automatic bid with a three-way tie is possible, but relying on that scenario is risky to say the least.
No. 28 Fordham (5-3, 2-1 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Bucknell (11/6), Lehigh (11/13), Colgate (11/20)
OUTLOOK: If the Rams win out, they’ll have a pretty good shot at the Patriot League title with a 5-1 record and wins against Lehigh and Colgate. In a best- case scenario, Fordham needs to win the three remaining games, have Lafayette lose to Colgate, and then have Lehigh beat Lafayette. In that situation, the Rams would win a head-to-head tiebreak with the Mountain Hawks and earn the conference’s automatic bid. Any other situation would be tough for the Rams to earn the bid, and they won’t be going as an at-large.
No. 29 Tennessee Tech (5-3, 2-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: Eastern Illinois (11/6), at SE Missouri (11/13), Eastern Kentucky (11/20)
OUTLOOK: A loss to Samford took Tennessee Tech out of the OVC driver’s seat and into a very crowded pack of four teams one game back of first-place Jacksonville State. Winning out would take Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky out of the tie, but the Gamecocks would still have to lose once and Murray State would also have to lose for the Golden Eagles to definitely earn the bid. If Murray State, Jacksonville State and Tennessee Tech finish in a messy three-way tie, the outcome of the game against the fourth place team would decide the champion. When the explanation for your chances is this long, it’s not a good sign.
No. 30 Murray State (5-4, 4-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: Tennessee-Martin (11/13), at Tennessee State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Of all the two loss teams in the OVC, Murray State has the least work to do to stay at the two-loss mark. The Racers have the easiest two games remaining, and have a good chance to finish 6-2 in the league. The two losses came against Eastern Illinois and Jacksonville State, so the tiebreakers with those teams would be tough to capture. If Murray State can get in a tiebreak that involves Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee Tech, they would be in better shape. The chances aren’t good, but if they can at least take the last two the Racers can hope the rest of the conference beats up on each other.
No. 31 Howard (5-3, 2-2 MEAC)
THE GAMES: at South Carolina State (11/6), at Bethune-Cookman (11/13), Delaware State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Bison need some, no make that a ton, of help to have a shot at the MEAC championship. First off, they can’t lose again. If they win out, they’ll finish with two losses and also deal South Carolina State and Bethune-Cookman a second loss. They also need Bethune-Cookman to defeat Hampton, and then Hampton to also lose to North Carolina A & T because the chances of winning a tiebreaker that involves the Pirates are very slim. At least the Bison have hope.
No. 32 Eastern Kentucky (3-5, 3-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: at Tennessee-Martin (11/6), SE Missouri (11/13), at Tennessee Tech (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Colonels need to win out and get a lot of help. Jacksonville State has to lose at least once, and then Eastern Kentucky would be in a four-way tie with Murray State and Eastern Illinois if both of those teams win out. The problem is, a three-way tie with Murray State and Jacksonville State would eliminate the Colonels right away, as would a two-way tie with either team. Eastern Kentucky needs to find a way to win out and somehow win the conference title outright or finish in a tie with just Eastern Illinois to have any legitimate shot at the OVC title. Things don’t look promising in Richmond.
No. 33 Maine (4-4, 2-2 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Hofstra (11/6), at Rhode Island (11/13), New Hampshire (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Maine’s inability to close games all season will probably be its undoing. The Black Bears have blown two last-minute leads and lost on a missed extra point in three of their four defeats this year. Maine did win at Mississippi State and played one of the toughest schedules in I-AA this season, so winning the rest of the games and finishing 7-4 would make a bid at least possible if there are a ton of upsets. If enough teams fall to force the committee to take a four-loss team, Maine would probably be the first to go.
No. 34 Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Indiana State (11/6), Illinois State (11/13), at Northern Arizona (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After a 1-4 start, the Panthers might actually be able to sneak into the playoffs by winning out and seeing a lot of upsets around the nation. The three I-AA losses were all to top 15 teams at the time and all came by a touchdown or less, and UNI’s fourth loss came against Iowa State. The Panthers would end the year on a six-game winning streak if they finish 7-4, and though the four losses would still hurt their chances the committee may take UNI’s hot finish into consideration. Other than the four losses, the Panthers will have a problem with only six wins against I-AA teams. It doesn’t look good, but the situation is not as impossible as it looked a few weeks ago.
No. 35 Appalachian State (5-4, 3-2 Southern)
THE GAMES: Elon (11/6), at Western Carolina (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Jekyll and Hyde act has almost definitely doomed the Mountaineers already. Appalachian State is already past the magical three-loss mark, and isn’t even the best team sitting with four defeats right now. Considering the Mountaineers are No. 3 among teams that already have four losses, Appalachian State needs to win out and hope for about five upsets a week to have a shot at a playoff berth.
Projected Field of 16 (As of 11/1)
-Projections are made by the Sports Network based on predicted finishes and not current standing:
Top Four seeds: Southern Illinois, Georgia Southern, Delaware, Sam Houston State
Automatic bids: A-10: Delaware; Big Sky: Montana; Gateway: Southern Illinois; Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State; Patriot: Lehigh; MEAC: Hampton; Southern: Georgia Southern; Southland: Sam Houston State;
At-large bids: New Hampshire, James Madison, William & Mary, Montana State Western Kentucky, Cal Poly, Furman, Wofford
By Matt Dougherty, The Sports Network
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Maybe when he’s done campaigning for John Kerry, Jon Bon Jovi can sing some inspirational tunes to I-AA schools that have only prayers remaining in the playoff race.
With tight races in the Ohio Valley Conference, MEAC and Southland, many teams that aren't on the national radar need music and prayers to hang on to the hope of a miracle run and a lot of assistance to earn the league’s automatic bid. So Howard, Nicholls State and Eastern Kentucky, you’re still with us for at least another week. The prayers probably won’t be answered, but at least the trio can hang onto some faint hope as we enter the final three weeks of rampant speculation for the 16-team I-AA playoff field.
Before we begin a peek at the potential teams for the 2004 playoff field, let’s review a few of the procedures that will leave some teams blue and make others rejoice on selection Sunday.
Sixteen playoff teams will be announced on Nov. 21, of which eight will be automatic qualifiers (the champions of the Atlantic 10, Big Sky, Gateway, MEAC, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland conferences) and eight will be chosen as at-large entries. A committee of I-AA directors of athletics will be asked to judge at-large teams on the following points, which come straight out of the NCAA manual:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket; 2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference; 3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, more than three losses will place a team in jeopardy of not being selected; 4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; 5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.
Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is not eligible for the playoff field:
- The Ivy League does not participate in the I-AA playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 11, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. Grambling and Southern, which play in the Nov. 27 Bayou Classic, are also ineligible for the playoffs due to conflict with the first round.; - The Great West Conference does not have an automatic bid, but both Cal Poly and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. UC Davis, Northern Colorado, North Dakota State and South Dakota State are in their transitional phase from Division II football and are not playoff eligible.; - The five-team Big South Conference’s teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid.; - The 22 teams from the three "I-AA Mid-Major" conferences (MAAC, NEC, Pioneer) are technically playoff eligible, though no team from any of those non- scholarship leagues has ever been chosen for the field.;
Now that we’ve established the criteria, let’s take a first look at the prospects of the 36 I-AA teams that can still entertain playoff prospects going into the first weekend of November. Schools are ranked by their probability of making the 16-team field, as determined by The Sports Network, and not by current top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.
No. 1 Georgia Southern (8-1, 6-0 Southern)
THE GAMES: at Furman (11/6), at Florida International (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Eagles have basically already guaranteed their spot in the field of 16, and can hang on to a top two seed by winning the final two games. Georgia Southern has already clinched a tie for the Southern Conference title and can win the title outright with a win at Furman.
No. 2 Southern Illinois (8-1, 5-0 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Illinois State (11/6), Indiana State (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Salukis keep running through the Gateway and will clinch the conference’s automatic bid with just one more win. Winning out should leave Southern Illinois with a top two seed, while the Salukis would appear to be in already even if they shockingly lose the final two.
No. 3 Sam Houston State (7-1, 2-0 Southland)
THE GAMES: McNeese State (11/6), at Northwestern State (11/13), Texas State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Bearkats’ win at Stephen F. Austin leaves them in great shape for a playoff berth, at least. Sam Houston State is tied for the Southland lead and has a chance to move up to a top four seed by winning out. The Bearkats might be able to suffer two more losses and still sneak in but should play well enough to avoid sweating on selection day.
No. 4 James Madison (7-1, 5-0 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Delaware (11/6), William & Mary (11/13), at Towson (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Dukes have the best situation of any remaining hopeful in the Atlantic 10. James Madison can win the conference and possibly even move up to a top four seed by winning out, and has the advantage of playing the toughest remaining games at home. If James Madison loses twice it still has a chance, but that’s not a road the Dukes want to explore.
No. 5 Lehigh (7-1, 3-0 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Georgetown (11/6), Fordham (11/13), at Lafayette (11/20)
OUTLOOK: By virtue of beating Colgate, the Mountain Hawks are in great shape to win the Patriot League and maybe even get a home game with a 10-1 record. The toughest game remaining is at Lafayette and every game is very winnable. If they lose one of the first two contests and still beat the Leopards, Lehigh would likely still be in good shape for the conference title. With history going against a second team from the Patriot League, any loss that affects the conference title could be damaging.
No. 6 New Hampshire (6-2, 3-2 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at Rhode Island (11/6), Towson (11/13), at Maine (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Wildcats big win at Northeastern leaves them in good position for a playoff bid. With wins at Delaware, Rutgers and Villanova, New Hampshire should still be comfortable with an 8-3 record. The games at Rhode Island and against Towson will likely lift UNH into the playoff field, but a slip up in one of those two will make the contest at Maine very interesting
No. 7 Montana (6-2, 3-1 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: Northern Arizona (11/6), Sacramento State (11/13), Montana State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After losing at Portland State, the Grizzlies will need to take two out of the last three at home to feel good about their playoff chances. Winning out will give Montana at least a share of the Big Sky title, but with two losses the Grizzlies will need some help to earn a top four seed. It’s hard to imagine the Grizzlies dropping two of three at home and falling out of the playoffs altogether, but surely their in-state rivals would love to be the ones to knock the Grizzlies off.
No. 8 Western Kentucky (6-2, 4-1 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Southwest Missouri State (11/6), Western Illinois (11/13), at Florida International (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Hilltoppers should be safe if they win two out of the final three, and every game is a good matchup for Western Kentucky. Three wins and a 9-2 record could help Western Kentucky earn a home game. The Gateway automatic bid is highly unlikely as Southern Illinois needs just one more win to clinch the title.
No. 9 Delaware (6-2, 5-0 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at James Madison (11/6), at Richmond (11/13), Villanova (11/20)
OUTLOOK: If Delaware can win two of the last three, they’ll be in the playoff bracket again. The Blue Hens can clinch the Atlantic 10 automatic bid by winning out, and wins in the final three games would likely mean a top four seed and home games in Newark. Losses to James Madison and Villanova would probably leave Delaware on the outside looking in.
No. 10 Cal Poly (7-1, 3-1 Great West)
THE GAMES: at Eastern Washington (11/6), Northern Colorado (11/13), at Sacramento State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: At 7-1, it appears Cal Poly can afford at least one more loss and still make the playoffs. But in a conference without an automatic bid, even two losses would leave the Mustangs sweating a bit on selection day. Sweeping the remaining games would seem to put the Mustangs in good position to host a round, but a top four seed could be tough to pick up in the first-year Great West.
No. 11 Furman (6-2, 3-1 Southern)
THE GAMES: Georgia Southern (11/6), at Wofford (11/13), Chattanooga (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Furman can afford a loss to Georgia Southern, but falling for a fourth time would likely doom the Paladins chances. If Furman can defeat Georgia Southern and win out, the Paladins will win the Southern Conference bid and notch top four seed.
No. 12 William & Mary (6-2, 4-1 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Villanova (11/6), at James Madison (11/13), Richmond (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Tribe’s only losses this year are at North Carolina and Delaware, so they could probably still feel safe with one more loss. The season finale at Richmond won’t be much trouble, so William & Mary will need to win one of the next two to move into comfortable playoff position.
No. 13 Montana State (6-2, 4-0 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: at Sacramento State (11/6), Eastern Washington (11/13), at Montana (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The "Cardiac" Cats barely needed to play the second half to whip Northern Arizona and are in good shape for a playoff berth and the Big Sky title. If Montana State wins out, the Bobcats take the conference title and have a good chance to stay at home for at least one playoff game. They can afford one more loss and still get an at-large (or possibly still win the Big Sky), but two more losses would do in the Bobcats.
No. 14 Hampton (7-1, 4-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: Bethune-Cookman (11/6), North Carolina A & T (11/13), at Savannah State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Pirates control their own destiny in the MEAC race. Wins over Bethune-Cookman and North Carolina A & T would put Hampton into the playoffs, and victories in the final three contests might even help the Pirates get a home game. If Hampton loses one of the MEAC games, the Pirates will have a tough time winning the conference and would have to wait for an at-large bid that might not come.
No. 15 Jacksonville State (6-1, 4-1 OVC)
THE GAMES: Samford (11/6), at Eastern Illinois (11/13), SE Missouri (11/20)
OUTLOOK: With Tennessee Tech’s loss to Samford, Jacksonville State is back in control of its own destiny in the OVC race. Four teams trail the Gamecocks by one game, so a loss could mean a complicated tiebreaker that Jacksonville State would love to avoid. If they lose a game, the Gamecocks would finish with just seven wins against I-AA competition, meaning an at-large bid would be unlikely. But with a formula of win and your in, Jacksonville State has to feel a lot safer than other bubble teams around the country.
No. 16 Wofford (6-2, 4-2 Southern)
THE GAMES: at Gardner-Webb (11/6), Furman (11/13), at VMI (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The picture for the Terriers looks much better after Appalachian State’s loss and losses of other teams in the top 25. Wofford would feel really good about itself by winning out and finishing 9-2, but the Terriers now would have a shot to make the field with an 8-3 mark despite three conference losses.
No. 17 Northwestern State (5-3, 1-1 Southland)
THE GAMES: Texas State (11/6), Sam Houston State (11/13), at Stephen F. Austin (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Demons went from virtual playoff lock to just hanging on with losses in the last two games. The good news for Northwestern State, though, is winning out will assure the Demons of a playoff berth as the Southland champion, providing Nicholls State doesn’t also win out. With three marginal wins earlier in the season, the Demons will definitely need to win the final three to have any chance.
No. 18 Eastern Washington (6-3, 5-1 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: Cal Poly (11/6), at Montana State (11/13)
OUTLOOK: Wins in the final two games will earn the Eagles a playoff berth. Eastern Washington has made a great recovery from an 0-2 start, but if it loses one of the final two that comeback could be for naught. If the Eagles lose to Cal Poly and defeat Montana State, they would win the Big Sky title and automatic bid if Montana loses another game.
No. 19 Lafayette (6-2, 3-0 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Colgate (11/6), Holy Cross (11/13), Lehigh (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Flying under the radar, the Leopards just need to win out to capture the Patriot League title. With wins in the next two games, Lafayette would set up a likely winner-take-all showdown with Lehigh in the season finale. The Leopards have some other scenarios where they could take the automatic bid even with a loss to Colgate, but none of those pictures look rosy and an at-large bid is probably not going to happen.
No. 20 Stephen F. Austin (5-3, 0-2 Southland)
THE GAMES: at Nicholls State (11/6), McNeese State (11/13), Northwestern State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After starting 5-1 and winning all the close games, the Lumberjacks have lost the last two by a field goal and will need to win out to gain a bid. With an 0-2 record in the Southland, the conference title is already out of the question. Stephen F. Austin has more talent than Nicholls State and McNeese State, and will need to beat both teams to set up a final game showdown with Northwestern State
No. 21 Colgate (5-3, 2-1 Patriot)
THE GAMES: Lafayette (11/6), at Bucknell (11/13), at Fordham (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Raiders best chance to win the Patriot League would be to win out and have Lehigh lose twice. Colgate will be effectively eliminated from the playoff race with any more losses, and the athletic directors of teams that are not involved could decide a three-team tie between Colgate, Lafayette and Lehigh. An 8-3 record might be good enough for an at-large spot and last season’s success could help the case, but the Raiders won’t have any big wins to show the committee.
No. 22 South Carolina State (6-2, 3-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: Howard (11/6), Morgan State (11/13), North Carolina A & T (11/2)
OUTLOOK: The formula for the Bears is pretty simple. South Carolina State needs to win out and have Bethune-Cookman defeat Hampton to earn the MEAC automatic bid. If they don’t gain the automatic spot, the Bears would have a case for an at-large spot by finishing 9-2 in the conference with losses to only Wofford and Hampton. But after both conference teams lost by double digits a year ago, the committee may be reluctant to take two from the MEAC again.
No. 23 Villanova (6-3, 3-3 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at William & Mary (11/6), at Delaware (11/20)
OUTLOOK: When the Wildcats lost to Northeastern on October 9, they were pretty much written off in the Atlantic 10 with a 3-3 mark and 0-3 start in the conference. After three convincing wins against the weaker teams in the league, Villanova will probably be in the playoffs if it wins the final two games on the road. That’s no easy task, but the prospects sure look better now than they did three weeks ago.
No. 24 Texas State (4-4, 2-0 Southland)
THE GAMES: at Northwestern State (11/6), Nicholls State (11/13), at Sam Houston State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Like Lafayette, Texas State might not be considered a contender in general but is in great shape in its conference. The Bobcats won’t go as an at- large, so they’ll probably have to win the rest of their conference games to capture the Southland title. They could still win the league with a 4-1 mark, but it would probably take a win over Sam Houston in the season finale because the Bearkats don’t figure to lose the next two games.
No. 25 Bethune-Cookman (5-2, 4-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: at Hampton (11/6), Howard (11/13), Florida A & M (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Wildcats need to beat Hampton and Howard and have South Carolina State lose to capture the MEAC title. Bethune-Cookman would finish 8-2 by winning out, but that might not be good enough for selection as an at-large after going with the same mark last season.
No. 26 Eastern Illinois (4-4, 3-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: at Tennessee Tech (11/6), Jacksonville State (11/13), at Samford (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Remember, this is a team that has one of the three wins over a I-A opponent this season (defeated Eastern Michigan, 31-28). The Panthers have been erratic and the loss to Tennessee-Martin might come back and bite them. Eastern Illinois does control its own destiny much more than the other two-loss teams in the OVC because it still plays Jacksonville State. If the Panthers beat the Gamecocks, they would win the head-to-head tiebreak. Only Eastern Kentucky would pose a problem in the tiebreak situation, so Eastern Illinois has its fate largely in its own hands.
No. 27 Nicholls State (4-3, 1-1 Southland)
THE GAMES: Stephen F. Austin (11/6), at Texas State (11/13), at McNeese State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Colonels aren’t in bad shape for the conference title as they have already faced Sam Houston State and Northwestern State. The best shot would be to win the remaining games and finish in a tie with just Northwestern State for the top spot, which Nicholls State would take by virtue of its victory over the Demons. Earning the automatic bid with a three-way tie is possible, but relying on that scenario is risky to say the least.
No. 28 Fordham (5-3, 2-1 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Bucknell (11/6), Lehigh (11/13), Colgate (11/20)
OUTLOOK: If the Rams win out, they’ll have a pretty good shot at the Patriot League title with a 5-1 record and wins against Lehigh and Colgate. In a best- case scenario, Fordham needs to win the three remaining games, have Lafayette lose to Colgate, and then have Lehigh beat Lafayette. In that situation, the Rams would win a head-to-head tiebreak with the Mountain Hawks and earn the conference’s automatic bid. Any other situation would be tough for the Rams to earn the bid, and they won’t be going as an at-large.
No. 29 Tennessee Tech (5-3, 2-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: Eastern Illinois (11/6), at SE Missouri (11/13), Eastern Kentucky (11/20)
OUTLOOK: A loss to Samford took Tennessee Tech out of the OVC driver’s seat and into a very crowded pack of four teams one game back of first-place Jacksonville State. Winning out would take Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky out of the tie, but the Gamecocks would still have to lose once and Murray State would also have to lose for the Golden Eagles to definitely earn the bid. If Murray State, Jacksonville State and Tennessee Tech finish in a messy three-way tie, the outcome of the game against the fourth place team would decide the champion. When the explanation for your chances is this long, it’s not a good sign.
No. 30 Murray State (5-4, 4-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: Tennessee-Martin (11/13), at Tennessee State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Of all the two loss teams in the OVC, Murray State has the least work to do to stay at the two-loss mark. The Racers have the easiest two games remaining, and have a good chance to finish 6-2 in the league. The two losses came against Eastern Illinois and Jacksonville State, so the tiebreakers with those teams would be tough to capture. If Murray State can get in a tiebreak that involves Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee Tech, they would be in better shape. The chances aren’t good, but if they can at least take the last two the Racers can hope the rest of the conference beats up on each other.
No. 31 Howard (5-3, 2-2 MEAC)
THE GAMES: at South Carolina State (11/6), at Bethune-Cookman (11/13), Delaware State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Bison need some, no make that a ton, of help to have a shot at the MEAC championship. First off, they can’t lose again. If they win out, they’ll finish with two losses and also deal South Carolina State and Bethune-Cookman a second loss. They also need Bethune-Cookman to defeat Hampton, and then Hampton to also lose to North Carolina A & T because the chances of winning a tiebreaker that involves the Pirates are very slim. At least the Bison have hope.
No. 32 Eastern Kentucky (3-5, 3-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: at Tennessee-Martin (11/6), SE Missouri (11/13), at Tennessee Tech (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Colonels need to win out and get a lot of help. Jacksonville State has to lose at least once, and then Eastern Kentucky would be in a four-way tie with Murray State and Eastern Illinois if both of those teams win out. The problem is, a three-way tie with Murray State and Jacksonville State would eliminate the Colonels right away, as would a two-way tie with either team. Eastern Kentucky needs to find a way to win out and somehow win the conference title outright or finish in a tie with just Eastern Illinois to have any legitimate shot at the OVC title. Things don’t look promising in Richmond.
No. 33 Maine (4-4, 2-2 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Hofstra (11/6), at Rhode Island (11/13), New Hampshire (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Maine’s inability to close games all season will probably be its undoing. The Black Bears have blown two last-minute leads and lost on a missed extra point in three of their four defeats this year. Maine did win at Mississippi State and played one of the toughest schedules in I-AA this season, so winning the rest of the games and finishing 7-4 would make a bid at least possible if there are a ton of upsets. If enough teams fall to force the committee to take a four-loss team, Maine would probably be the first to go.
No. 34 Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Indiana State (11/6), Illinois State (11/13), at Northern Arizona (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After a 1-4 start, the Panthers might actually be able to sneak into the playoffs by winning out and seeing a lot of upsets around the nation. The three I-AA losses were all to top 15 teams at the time and all came by a touchdown or less, and UNI’s fourth loss came against Iowa State. The Panthers would end the year on a six-game winning streak if they finish 7-4, and though the four losses would still hurt their chances the committee may take UNI’s hot finish into consideration. Other than the four losses, the Panthers will have a problem with only six wins against I-AA teams. It doesn’t look good, but the situation is not as impossible as it looked a few weeks ago.
No. 35 Appalachian State (5-4, 3-2 Southern)
THE GAMES: Elon (11/6), at Western Carolina (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Jekyll and Hyde act has almost definitely doomed the Mountaineers already. Appalachian State is already past the magical three-loss mark, and isn’t even the best team sitting with four defeats right now. Considering the Mountaineers are No. 3 among teams that already have four losses, Appalachian State needs to win out and hope for about five upsets a week to have a shot at a playoff berth.
Projected Field of 16 (As of 11/1)
-Projections are made by the Sports Network based on predicted finishes and not current standing:
Top Four seeds: Southern Illinois, Georgia Southern, Delaware, Sam Houston State
Automatic bids: A-10: Delaware; Big Sky: Montana; Gateway: Southern Illinois; Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State; Patriot: Lehigh; MEAC: Hampton; Southern: Georgia Southern; Southland: Sam Houston State;
At-large bids: New Hampshire, James Madison, William & Mary, Montana State Western Kentucky, Cal Poly, Furman, Wofford
Wednesday, June 10
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